M4 Demographic regimes

Topic

Demographic regimes—part of the "Population" component, which the resource regime track only partially drives—represent the various modes of demographic transition a society can undergo. As long as per capita income and female education levels remain below the thresholds associated with a decline in fertility, the society stays within its current demographic regime, and the underlying population structure does not shift mode.

Per capita income and female education levels are the two variables that trigger the shift to a new demographic regime: when both cross the thresholds associated with falling fertility, the society enters a demographic mode shift. It is neither per capita income alone nor female education levels alone that drive the transition; rather, it is the crossing of their respective thresholds that sets off the decline in fertility.

This fertility decline is the same process that, if sustained well below replacement levels, ultimately triggers demographic collapse. While crossing these thresholds regarding per capita income and female education does not immediately cause demographic collapse, it ushers in the demographic regime that makes such a fertility decline possible. Therefore, monitoring per capita income alongside female education levels allows one to anticipate—generations in advance—whether a society is approaching the demographic regime that could ultimately lead to demographic collapse.

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