A2 Power Anomalies

Topic

Elite overproduction is a power anomaly that occurs when the ratio of elite aspirants to available positions rises well above one—one of the anomalies comprising "Power," one of the three themes (alongside Geopolitics and Conflict) carried over by the political authority track as it shifts stages. As long as the ratio of elite aspirants to available positions remains close to one, the available positions of power continue to absorb those aspiring to fill them; when the ratio rises well above one, elite overproduction is triggered as a power anomaly.

Unlike elite overproduction, which depends on the number of aspirants competing for available positions, a power vacuum is an anomaly that occurs when there is no recognized legitimate successor to fill the position of supreme authority. A power vacuum is precipitated precisely by that absence of a recognized legitimate successor, regardless of how many elite aspirants exist: there may be an abundance of aspirants, yet none of them is recognized as a legitimate successor.

Unlike elite overproduction and power vacuums—which depend on the number of power aspirants or the presence of a recognized legitimate successor—state capture is a power anomaly that occurs when the share of state revenue appropriated by private interests crosses a certain threshold. As long as the share of state revenue appropriated by private interests remains below that threshold, the state continues to operate with a degree of autonomy; once the threshold is crossed, state capture is triggered. Elite overproduction, power vacuums, and state capture are thus three distinct power anomalies, each triggered by a specific variable: the ratio of elite aspirants to available positions for elite overproduction; the absence of a recognized legitimate successor for power vacuums; and the share of state revenue captured by private interests for state capture. Institutional collapse and coups belong to this same family of power anomalies but, unlike the other three, do not yet have a specific triggering variable defined within this model.

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