A1 Transition of authority regime

Topic

An authority regime transition—occurring within the realm of political authority that encompasses power, geopolitics, and conflict—is an event that takes place when the State’s fiscal and coercive capacity collapses in a sustained manner, leaving behind the authority regime that such capacity underpinned. As long as the State’s fiscal and coercive capacity remains intact—even if momentarily weakened—society stays within the same authority regime.

What triggers an authority regime transition is a sustained collapse of the State’s fiscal and coercive capacity, not an isolated event; a one-off fiscal bankruptcy or localized desertion within security forces is not enough on its own. The State’s fiscal and coercive capacity must collapse in a sustained way—for instance, when fiscal bankruptcy drags on or desertion among security forces becomes widespread—for an authority regime transition to be set in motion.

This distinction between an isolated event and a sustained collapse is what separates a fleeting government crisis from a genuine authority regime transition: only when the State’s fiscal and coercive capacity fails to recover—whether due to sustained fiscal bankruptcy or sustained desertion within security forces—does society settle into a new authority regime. Monitoring whether the collapse of the State’s fiscal and coercive capacity persists or reverses is, therefore, the way to recognize an authority regime transition while it is unfolding.

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