A1 Systemic crisis threshold

Topic

The composite crisis index aggregates, into a single measure, the local anomalies emerging across different sectors of society—a mechanism independent of which specific stage currently prevails in any given dimension, whether it be Resource Regime, Political Authority, Worldview, or Kinship Intensity. As long as the composite crisis index remains below the irreversibility threshold, local anomalies stay contained within their respective spheres without jeopardizing society as a whole. However, when the composite crisis index crosses the irreversibility threshold, that transition transforms the accumulation of local anomalies into a societal-scale crisis: society loses the ability to address each anomaly in isolation, and the problem comes to involve the system in its entirety.

The irreversibility threshold marks the boundary between a mere spate of scattered local anomalies and an established societal-scale crisis. Below this threshold, the accumulation of local anomalies may fluctuate without compromising society as a whole; once the threshold is crossed, the societal-scale crisis takes hold, no longer defined by any single local anomaly but rather by the composite crisis index that encompasses them all.

Consequently, the composite crisis index is the key variable to monitor: its approach to the irreversibility threshold signals that a societal-scale crisis is imminent, without requiring the identification of the specific local anomaly that will ultimately overwhelm society.

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