M3 Secular Cycle

Topic

The secular cycle—a concept within Cliodynamics that the resource-regime trajectory drags along with the economic trajectory whenever it shifts phases—proceeds through four sequential stages: expansion, stagnation, crisis, and depression, before returning to a new period of expansion. While the secular cycle remains in its expansion phase, society continues to grow without yet manifesting the tensions that drive it toward the subsequent stages.

The ratio of elite aspirants to available positions is the variable that triggers the secular cycle’s progression into its later stages; once this ratio—which indicates elite overproduction—crosses a certain threshold, it pushes the cycle from expansion into stagnation, and from there into crisis.

The crisis phase of the secular cycle is precisely what was previously described as the "secular crisis": it is during this stage that elite overproduction—compounded by real wage stagnation, state fiscal stress, and polarization—fully solidifies. Consequently, tracking the ratio of elite aspirants to available positions throughout the secular cycle—rather than only after the secular crisis has already begun—allows one to anticipate which phase of the cycle a society is in, long before it reaches the stage of depression.

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