A1 Resource regime transition

Topic

A resource regime transition is an event that occurs when a society's dominant source of surplus shifts completely, leaving behind the source that underpinned the previous regime. As long as the dominant source of surplus remains the same—even if its magnitude fluctuates from year to year—the society stays within the same resource regime, regardless of any cycles of expansion or contraction it may undergo.

What triggers a resource regime transition is a discontinuous leap in the dominant source of surplus; for this to qualify as such, the shift must be sustained over generations. Examples include the Industrial Revolution or widespread automation that replaces human labor as the dominant source of surplus. In contrast, an isolated political shock is insufficient to produce a resource regime transition: while it may temporarily shift which actor controls the dominant source of surplus, it does not alter the nature of the source itself, and thus lacks the irreversibility characteristic of a discontinuous, multi-generational leap.

This distinction separates a transient crisis from a genuine resource regime transition: only when the shift in the dominant source of surplus is discontinuous and sustained over generations does a society become established in a new resource regime—one from which it cannot revert through an isolated political shock. Once established, the resource regime transition profoundly affects indicators related to the economy and cliodynamics—which depend directly on the prevailing dominant source of surplus—while only partially influencing population indicators, which respond to the regime shift without being entirely determined by it. Determining whether a shift in the dominant source of surplus meets that dual condition—discontinuity and generational persistence—is thus the way to recognize a resource regime transition while it is unfolding, rather than confirming it only generations later, and to anticipate how the Economy, Cliodynamics, and—to a lesser extent—Population realign in its wake.

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