E3 Geopolitical actors and strategic resources

Topic

Geopolitical actors and strategic resources—the bedrock of geopolitics and one of the three themes carried along as the "political authority" track shifts phases—encompass states, the alliances they form, the resources they control, and their relative power vis-à-vis one another. As long as the relative distribution of material capability among these geopolitical actors remains stable, the international order shows no pressure for structural change.

A shift in the relative distribution of material capability among geopolitical actors is the variable that triggers transition risk: when such a shift brings a geopolitical actor closer to parity with the incumbent hegemon, the risk of transition rises. Conversely, as long as the relative distribution of material capability keeps the incumbent hegemon clearly ahead of other geopolitical actors, that transition risk remains low.

This movement toward parity with the incumbent hegemon is precisely what the relative material capability index tracks closely; it is also the point identified as carrying the highest risk of triggering a hegemonic transition war. For this reason, geopolitical actors and strategic resources—and specifically how material capability is redistributed among them—form the basis for anticipating hegemonic transition war, long before the risk of transition reaches its peak.

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