E2 Elements of power: state capacity and elites

Topic

The elements of power, the substrate of Power, one of the three themes that the lane of political authority drags when changing sections, bring together the state capacity and the elites of a society: the ideological, economic, military and political capacities, the size of the elite, its renewal rate, and the carrying capacity of the available positions of power. These elements of power do not change on their own; They do so when two different variables push them in one direction or another.

The first is the ratio between elite aspirants and available power positions, the same mechanism that already operates in Cliodynamics but applied here at the Power level: when that ratio exceeds one on a sustained basis, the carrying capacity of the available power positions is exceeded, and the elements of power move towards the overproduction of elites.

The second is the fiscal and administrative capacity of the State relative to its demands: when that fiscal and administrative capacity falls steadily in the face of the demands that the State faces, the elements of power instead move towards institutional collapse, as already measured by the state capacity index.

The ratio between the aspiring elite and the available positions of power and the fiscal and administrative capacity of the State are, thus, two independent axes of the elements of power: one triggers the overproduction of elites, the other triggers institutional collapse, and both can move at the same time without depending on each other. That is why the elements of power need to be followed in their two dimensions, that of the elites and that of the State, to anticipate which of the two anomalies of power a society is moving towards.

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