A3 Anomalies of the international order

Topic

Hegemonic transition war is an anomaly of the international order that occurs when the relative power of a challenger surpasses that of the incumbent hegemon—one of the anomalies comprising Geopolitics, one of the three themes (alongside Power and Conflict) carried over by the political authority track as it shifts stages. As long as the hegemon's power remains clearly superior to the challenger's relative power, the international order continues to be organized around that hegemon without triggering a hegemonic transition war.

The moment when the challenger's relative power crosses that of the hegemon—that is, the moment of parity between the two—is, according to power transition theory, the point of greatest risk for the outbreak of hegemonic transition war: it occurs neither when the challenger has already vastly surpassed the hegemon nor when it remains far behind, but precisely when their respective power levels intersect.

The collapse of alliances and the international power vacuum belong to this same family of international order anomalies alongside hegemonic transition war; however, unlike the latter, they do not yet have a specific trigger variable defined within this model. The international power vacuum, in particular, is analogous to the power vacuum described at the domestic level: just as the absence of a recognized legitimate successor triggers a power vacuum within a state, the absence of a hegemon capable of sustaining the international order could trigger an international power vacuum, although the model does not yet explicitly establish this condition.

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