D1 Composite Crisis Index

Topic

The composite crisis index combines, in a single series, the simultaneous deviations of the Population, Power, Economy and Inequality indicators from their normal range — a mechanism that does not depend on which section is in force in any particular lane, be it Resource Regime, Political Authority, Worldview or Kinship Intensity. The composite crisis index rises when several of these indicators deviate at the same time, and it rises even more when these deviations feed off each other: a deviation in one of the Population, Power, Economy or Inequality indicators can aggravate the deviation in the others, and this feedback between the indicators is what sustains the rise of the composite crisis index, not an isolated deviation of a single indicator.

While the composite crisis index moves within its usual range, the deviation of the Population, Power, Economy and Inequality indicators is recorded but does not change the condition of society. The irreversibility threshold is the point at which this stops being true: when the composite crisis index crosses the irreversibility threshold on a sustained basis, and not just in a passing peak, that crossing directly triggers Anomaly A1, the Systemic Crisis Threshold.

This is what makes the composite crisis index the reference variable to detect Anomaly A1 before it consolidates: there is no need to wait until Anomaly A1 is already established — it is enough to follow how the deviations of the Population, Power, Economy and Inequality indicators within the composite crisis index, and how close its sustained crossing of the irreversibility threshold is, to anticipate Anomaly A1.

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